The Iranian response to KSA & UAE intervention in Bahrain 17, March 2011
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Bahrain, Iran, Saudi Arabia.Tags: Iran, Iran Saudi, Iran's reaction to Bahrain, Pearl roundabout, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Bahrain, Saudi invade Bahrain, Saudi troops in Bahrain, Saudi troops UAE Police Bahrain
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Iran to respond to regional invaders
…was the title of an article on Iran’s Press TV.
The first line of the article is a quote from Hossein Naqavi, a member of Iran’s Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy:
The Saudi’s should know for a fact that Tehran will use all the power and potentials at its disposal to halt the oppression of the people of Bahrain.
Does any of this really need much analysis?
The only caveat to this that I’d make is that Iran is usually 95% bluster and barking (“all trousers” as we say) and 5% bite. These bellicose statements were guaranteed to come from Tehran. Actually how much truth there is to them is most certainly a different question.
Without wishing to state the obvious, the longer Saudi troops are in Bahrain, the greater the risk of Iran’s meddling. Not only will the opportunity of funding some group to take pot-shots at Saudi troops grow exponentially by the day, but Iran just sitting back as its local hegemonic rival stamps its authority on a patch of the Gulf to which Iran feels…umm…attached, would be seen as a sign of Iranian weakness and thus unacceptable.
Watch this space for the first signs of some Iranian money slithering its way towards Haq or some other Shia group.
Head of IRGC slaps Ahmadinejad 5, January 2011
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran.Tags: Cablegate Iran, Iran, IRGC Chief slaps President Ahmedinejad, President Ahmedinejad, President Ahmedinejad slapped, President Ahmedinejad slapped by IRGC, Wikileaks cablegate, Wikileaks Iran
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According to a recent Wikileaks cable release the Head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) slapped President Ahmadinejad in a heated meeting.
Under a section titled ‘He who got slapped’ someone from the US Embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan reported the confrontation.
According to source, President Ahmedinejad surprise dother SNSC members by taking a surprisingly liberal posture
during a mid January post-Ashura meeting of the SNSC called to discuss next steps on dealing with opposition protests.
Source said that Ahmedinejad claimed that “people feel suffocated,” and mused that to defuse the situation it may be
necessary to allow more personal and social freedoms, including more freedom of the press.According to source, Ahmedinejad’s statements infuriated Revolutionary Guard Chief of Staff Mohammed Ali
Jafari, who exclaimed “You are wrong! (In fact) it is YOU who created this mess! And now you say give more freedom to
the press?!” Source said that Jafarli then slapped Ahmedinejad in the face, causing an uproar and an immediate
call for a break in the meeting, which was never resumed.
Reading this reporting I am reminded of some kind of cross between a game of Chinese whispers and a ‘Days of Our Lives’ storyline. I can’t say I really know why.
The Spanish Paper that released that first commented on the story has been blocked in Iran.
Iranian nuclear scientists assassinated? 29, November 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in American ME Relations, Iran.Tags: Iran, Iran's nuclear project, Iranian nuclear scientists assassinated, Iranian nuclear scientists killed, Nuclear power Iran
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Though reports are sketchy, it appears as if there were two successful assassination attempts against two Iranian nuclear scientists this morning.
Dr Majid Shahriari and Fereydoon Abbasi were, according to one Iranian newspaper, ‘distinguished members of school of Nuclear Engineering at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran’ and members of the Iranian Nuclear Association. Both also – allegedly – had close connections with the Ministry of Defence.
This is either the third of fourth such assassination this year, depending upon what sources one believes.
It takes no imagination whatsoever to imagine that Israel and America would be interested in carrying out such assassinations. However, barring another spectacular diplomatic breach, we are unlikely ever to know exactly the cause of these deaths.
Iran caught fermenting troubles in West Africa? 15, November 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Africa, Iran.Tags: Iran, Iran arms to West Africa, Iranian ship weapons, Nigeria Iran, Nigeria ship weapons find
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The Nigerian Government is on the verge of reporting Iran to the United Nations Security Council after a huge cache of arms was discovered in Lagos port on a ship from Iran which was met by two Iranians from the Embassy.
The Times of London reports that the Iranian Foreign Minister immediately flew to Lagos to try to placate the Nigerians.
There seems to be little doubt of the origins of the consignment after Nigeria’s Foreign Minister noted that
The consignment did originate from Iran. That’s been confirmed from our own shipping documents and the Iranian foreign minister.
Not much wiggle room there.
The cache including rockets, rocket launchers, shells, grenades and other assorted explosives was intercepted by Nigerian security services. The two Iranians, assumed to be intelligence officials that greeted the shipment, fled back to Iran’s embassy. One is rumoured to be
Sayed Akbar Tahmaesebi, a known member of the al-Quds unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, whose visa to Nigeria was supported with a note from the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
None of this looks very good for Iran. The only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from these events is that Iran is seeking to ferment issues in Western Africa. Why specifically Iran would want to do this in Nigeria is, as they say, beyond my ken.
Iran’s weakness: its ports 15, July 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, The Emirates.Tags: Iran, Iran port, Iranian ports, Iranian shipping, UAE reexporting
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There’s a very interesting article written by Meir Javedanfar in The Diplomat discussing a strategic weakness of Iran. Javedanfar notes that Iran’s southern ports are not able to accommodate +100,000 ton ships. [Presumably they don't have any such ports in the north...] Any larger ships must dock in the UAE are the goods reexported. This is problematic, Javendanfar, suggests for a few reasons.
- Given the increase in 250,000 ton ships plying the Gulf, Iran is increasingly losing out on economies of scale.
- Relying on another country for transit of such an amount of goods is a dangerous tactic. Particularly given the UAE’s increasing proclivities towards siding with American sanctions, this could well bode ill for Iran.
- Iran is paying hundreds of millions of dollars (perhaps billions, he suggests) to the UAE in port fees.
Iranian Ambassador: Kuwaiti journalists paid by Israel 4, June 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, Kuwait.Tags: Iran, Iran Kuwait relations, Israel, Israel blamed for everything, Kuwait, Revolutionary Guard, Revolutionary Guard spies in GCC, Revolutionary Guard spies in Kuwait
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Kuwait’s outgoing Iranian Ambassador has accused some local journalists of being paid by ‘the Zionist State’ to attack Iran and defend Israel. He is referring, I assume, to the recent stories in the Kuwaiti Press of the discovery of Iranian Revolutionary Guard spies embedded in Kuwait.
This type of fear – that of Iranian sponsored or inspired 5th columnists in Gulf societies – is, I believe, the key fear of most Gulfies, more so than a ‘conventional’ Iranian military threat.
The key problem for the Iranian Ambassador is that even if he is correct and the story is fabricated, he sounds so absurd once again pinning the blame on Israel for this that one simply can’t take him seriously. I think there might be a moral here…something to do with a boy…wolves…crying…sheep…
Abu Dhabi building pipe to avoid Hormuz 3, June 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Qatar, Soft Power, The Emirates.Tags: Abu Dhabi pipeline avoid Hormuz, Choke point, Iran, Iran Hormuz, Qatar pipelines, Saudi east west pipeline, Straits of Hormuz, Threats to world oil supply
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(Square – Habshan Refinery. Triangle – Fujairah. Elipse – Straits of Hormuz)
Abu Dhabi’s government is spending $3 billion building a 375km oil pipeline from their refinery at Habshan south west of Abu Dhabi itself to Fujairah on the Emirates’ east coast which avoids the Straits of Hormuz choke point. Were some kind of conflagration to occur and Iran to attempt to close down the Straits as they promised to do, the Emirates unlike Qatar and Kuwait, would still be able to sell their oil to the world market (as well as reaping the benefits of the astronomical price, were Iran to close the Straits).
Whilst Qatar has mooted on several occasions an idea of building a pipe for its gas through Saudi Arabia and onto Turkey, there are significant hurdles involved. Saudi Arabia has their 745 miles-long East-West pipeline but this does not have the same capacity or cost base as their shipping.
Originally planned to open in 2009 it is now expected to open in August 2011.
It is also interesting to note that it is a Chinese Company that has been contracted to build the pipeline. I wonder what exactly the terms were for that deal i.e. whether China insisted on ‘first dibs’ on the oil that comes out the other end, were the worst to happen.
Hat tip: MEED Issue No 22 28 May – 3 June 2010
Iranian spy cells ‘throughout the Gulf’ 8, May 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, Kuwait.Tags: Gulf, Iran, Iran and GCC, Iranian spys, Kuwait Iranian spys
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A hardline Kuwaiti Salafi recently commented that Iranian spy cells are “active and present in most other Gulf States.” This comes after such a cell was apparently found and broken up in Kuwait.
Mohammed Hayef, the Kuwaiti in question, is well-known for his anti-Iranian stance in Kuwait and has even called for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador from Kuwait. He refused to reveal his sources.
Whilst I have no doubts that there are Iranian inspired or even paid agents throughout the Gulf, I do not believe at all that Hayef has any actually intelligence confirming this. His past makes him a wholly incredible source.
Iran unvails new drones 16, April 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.Tags: Iran, Iran military, Iranian drones, Israel, Israeli drones, Pretador drone, Reaper drone, UAVs
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Iran’s military has announced that they have produced unmanned aeriel vehicles (UAVs) that can both gather intelligence and strike hostile targets. Whilst they will be no where near as advanced as the US’ predator and reaper drones used in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, they will nevertheless cause some consternation. UPI reports that the US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates voiced concerns that Iran’s new drones could “create difficulty” for the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. He even put forward the much-loved US hypothetical of such technologies falling into the hands of terrorists.
It seems more likely that whilst these drones will certainly have some tactical use for Iran’s military, given that the Israelis recently officially announced that they had produced a drone that could reach Iran, they simply had no choice but maintain parity with their chosen enemy of recent times.
Iran’s indigenous defence industry has been progressing for years now since US sanctions forced them to look inward to meet their needs. However, whilst aspects of this industry are thought to be well-funded, in reality Iran simply cannot match the level of technological sophistication of Western powers or even of their Arab neighbours who buy top-class Western kit. I would be surprised, therefore, despite the Iranian fan-fare, if these drones really posed that much of a new threat. However, being no Iranian military expert, I stand ready to be corrected…
As a brief aside it is interesting to note that Iran’s desperation for spare parts for their air force during the 1980s and their Iraq war, led them to deal intimately with the Israelis. Back then both Israel and Iran were united despite their ideological differences by an all-consuming fear of Iraq. Whatever Khomeini’s rhetoric towards Tel Aviv, his trading of oil for spare parts is a perfect example of realpolitik.
Dubai’s Iran ties 3, April 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, The Emirates.Tags: Dubai, Dubai Iran links, Iran, Iranian economy, sanctions busting, US Sanctions
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Time Magazine has a good article discussing Dubai’s well-known Iranian links. These are no secret and this is no scoop, but they are presented in a straight-forward and interesting way. Some key points:
- Dubai is a key center for re-exporting both to and from Iran
- Dubai-Iran trade worth $12 billion last year
- 400,000 Iranians live in Dubai
- 8000 Iranian companies are registered in Dubai
- 2 Iranian banks in Dubai – Bank Melli iran and Bank Saderat Iran – are under investigation for funding Iran’s nuclear programme
- Recently, Dubai officials have discovered US aircraft parts destined for Iran’s military and US counterparts foiled the sale of US attack helicopters to Iran via Dubai based export companies
Only a small portion of shipments are checked, and officials rely on the honesty of shipping brokers in filling out manifests.
