Future Chinese-US conflict over Middle East? 31, October 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in American ME Relations, China, China and the ME.Tags: America Persian Gulf, China, China navy, Oil conflict
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Usually I find myself firmly on the more passive side of are China evil/viciously expanding their Navy/a mortal threat to the future of America. I firmly believe that China are simply expanding their Navy – if and when they do – in the remit of their own state interests and not as some hegemonic power-play. I don’t see some inevitable clash of civilizations or of powers or of pretenders.
However, when China’s former Special Envoy to the Middle East, fluent in Arabic and a former Ambassador to Saudi, Iraq and Iran, says that he sees an American-Chinese conflict as inevitable, then it would seem prudent to take note.
Obama’s new Middle East policy is only a strategic change. Yet America’s global goals and hegemonic complex cannot change. America always tries to hold the world’s main oil ‘switch’. There is thus competition and cooperation between China and America. In particular, America views China as a strategic competitor. And bilateral discord and clashes are unavoidable. China must not drop its guard in the Middle East over its oil interests and security.
Having duly taken note, I now ignore his advice and still firmly believe that there will be no such conflict. It will take light years before China can compete militarily with America in any meaningfully way, shape or form. True, smaller perhaps proxy conflicts are possible, but these are far from the order of magnitude that usually referred to with this kind of topic. Here’s hoping that I’m right.
China-GCC Free Trade Agreement? 22, September 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China and the ME.Tags: China, China and the GCC, China and the Midd, China and the Middle East, New Silk Road blog, Oil, String of pearls
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China’s integration into Middle East’s markets continues apace. Plans have been announced to form a free-trade zone between the GCC and China. According to Qatar’s daily newspaper, The Peninsula, the first round of talks were held in Riyadh and were successful.
Key to the GCC’s thoughts are the removal of custom tariffs. As for China, they will welcome any kind of increased or deepened relationship with the GCC. China’s thirst for energy is increasing at seemingly inexorable rates whilst their domestic supplies are in their twilight years. The confluence of these factors (discussed here) rightly has the Chinese leadership searching for better links with oil producing areas of the world to bolster their energy security (discussed here). Indeed, it is thought that China’s so-called ‘string of pearls’ – naval bases strung around the Indian Ocean including a key one in Gwadar in Pakistan right at the Straits of Hormuz – are aimed first and foremost at guarding the life-line of oil and gas from the GCC to their mainland (more here and here).
However, not all of China’s best made plans are coming to fruition. Ben Simpfendorfer’s excellent New Silk Road blog mentions two setbacks recently for the red state.
Libya has rejected a $417 million bid by China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) for Verenex, a Canadian oil-exploration company with Libyan oil leases. Libya’s national company has since purchased Verenex at 30% less than CNPC’s offer price. I’m [sic] not sure if Libya’s response was specific to China itself, or a de-facto attempt to nationalize some of its oil assets. But the response is interesting given that Libya, alongside Algeria, is one of few countries in the Middle East to receive large numbers of Chinese workers. In fact, I heard from a Libyan central bank official in June that 6,000 Chinese workers had applied for visas in the previous month alone. And I wouldn’t be surprised if this has caused some friction.
Iraq may blacklist China’s Sinopec for its purchase of the Geneva-based oil-exploration company Addax, which owns several licenses directly issued by the Kurdish Regional Government. The licenses are in breach of an Iraqi law requiring all oil deals are made in Baghdad.
The DRC’s Chinese corridor 16, September 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China.Tags: Africa, China, China in Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo
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I’m always partial to a nice map and this little number here is from Le Monde Diplomatique. It highlights the prevalence of China’s construction firms building thousands upon thousands of miles of rail and road links in the 3rd largest African country, the Democratic Republic of Congo.
China & the Middle East: An Unfolding Courtship 16, September 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China and the ME.Tags: China, Middle East
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This is something that was published sometime ago. Yet, it is only now that I have found a suitable (but still not perfect) way of uploading it here. Use the arrow pointing downwards on the right to make it larger or click the ‘full screen’ button (the one furthest to the right) to have a read.
(PS. No, “an unburdened Panda” was not my idea)
Originally published in the Kuwait Times : 09/02/08
Another Chinese-Iranian faux pas 15, September 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China, China and the ME, Iran.Tags: Bismillah al rahman al rahim, China Iran, Iran
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Following not long after a Chinese company exported Jaffa Oranges (i.e. Israeli) to Iran leading to a predictable kerfuffle involving strenuous statements, angry rhetoric, various denouncings and a few sackings, now it transpires that some enterprising Chinese exporter has exported jeans to Iran with ‘بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم‘ (“In the name of God, the compassionate, the merciful) on the back pocket. The quicker ones among you will realise that this means that wearing such jeans would involve sitting, so to speak, on Allah’s name. This has not gone down well. Cue strenuous statements, angry rhetoric, various denouncing, a few sackings…
India: catching up to China’s string of pearls 8, September 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China, The Sub Continent.Tags: blue water navy, China's navy, India's navy, Indian Ocean, String of pearls
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(Red crosses – China’s bases: Black boxes – India’s bases)
There’s an interesting article in the Asia Times Online discussing India’s establishment of a port in the Maldives. This come in large part as a reaction to China’s string of pearls i.e. their naval bases around the Indian Ocean that have the Indians somewhat perturbed. The map is a crude representation of where their respective naval bases are in the region (based on open-source information). In addition, India have the use of a base in Madagascar whilst China have the use of a base in Kenya and Tanzania.
Hat tip: Andrew Bishop
China No.1 exporter to the ME 7, September 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China and the ME, Middle East.Tags: China, China and the Middle East, Exporting, Middle East, Silk Road
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Here’s a quick note of an interesting article in – of all places – the Torygraph, by the author of the New Silk Road Blog. It highlights the trend of China’s ever growing exports to the Middle East to the tune that they are now the number one exporter to the Middle East at $60bn (up from just $4bn a decade ago).
It contains a few interesting nuggets of information such as the existence of ‘a virtual Arab market town’ not far from Shanghai as so many buyers from the Middle East apparantly go there to look for products and it also cautions as to the effects of cheap Chinese products flooding Middle Eastern cities. Whilst Kuwait City and Doha need not worry so much, Damascus and Cairo, with their enormous populations, the young-age of many and their skills sets, have something to fear from this. The author concludes that this can only draw on a protectionist backlash at some stage.
China increases ties with Saudi Arabia 27, July 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China and the ME, Saudi Arabia, The Gulf.Tags: China, Increased ties, Saudi Arabia
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A Chinese company has been selected to build 200 new schools in Saudi Arabia that when completed will accommodate 153,000 students.
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Relations between China – the world’s second largest oil importer, and Saudi Arabia – the worlds top oil producer, are concentrated mainly on energy cooperation but China hopes to be able to increase bilateral trade from an estimated $15 billion in 2005 to $20 billion in 2010.
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Since 2001 China has signed some 3,000 contracts totaling $2.7 billion with the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which includes Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
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In 2004 an agreement on Economic, Trade, Investment, and Technological Cooperation was signed between China and the GCC and negotiations for a China-GCC free trade zone were initiated.
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Meanwhile, the Chinese broadcasting company China Central TV on Saturday night launched an Arabic language channel for the Middle East and Africa as part of the government’s plans to improve its relations with the Arab and Muslim World. The channel is China Central’s fourth foreign language channel after English, French and Spanish.
China’s LNG Terminals 2, June 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China, LNG.Tags: China, LNG
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Hat Tip: LNGpedia
Article catch up 29, May 2009
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Bahrain, China and the ME, Egypt, French IR, LNG, Middle East.Tags: American base, Bahrain, Cairo speech, Iranian elections, Kyrgyzstan, LNG, Migrant labout rights, Obama visit, Web 2.0
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– Interestingly, it is being suggested that Turkey might be acting as an intermediary for America in persuading Kyrgyzstan to retain their US base.
– MEI blog and Marc Lynch on Obama scheduling a visit to Riyadh just before he gives his much-hyped speech in Cairo.
– Commentary on Bahrain’s new proposals to augment migrant worker’s rights being significantly watered down by business interests.
– Bomb at Iranian mosque in the run up to the elections.
– Thailand building LNG regasification facilities to receive LNG from the Middle East.
– Yemen are about to join Qatar et al in the exporting of LNG.
– On the Middle East’s expected increase in defense spending.
– Marc Lynch on the importance of Arab opinion polls.
– MEI blog on the Iranian un/blocking of Facebook and Microsoft’s bizarre decision to ban Messenger in various embargoed countries and on the French base in the UAE.
– China is now the largest exporter to the Middle East having over-taken the US. Hat tip: Silk Road Economy via the Arabist.
– On the possibility of China creating its own Al Jazeera.
– On the surprisingly close Israeli-Iranian relations below governmental level. See also ‘Treacherous Alliances.’
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