Abu Dhabi building pipe to avoid Hormuz 3, June 2010
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Qatar, Soft Power, The Emirates.Tags: Abu Dhabi pipeline avoid Hormuz, Choke point, Iran, Iran Hormuz, Qatar pipelines, Saudi east west pipeline, Straits of Hormuz, Threats to world oil supply
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(Square – Habshan Refinery. Triangle – Fujairah. Elipse – Straits of Hormuz)
Abu Dhabi’s government is spending $3 billion building a 375km oil pipeline from their refinery at Habshan south west of Abu Dhabi itself to Fujairah on the Emirates’ east coast which avoids the Straits of Hormuz choke point. Were some kind of conflagration to occur and Iran to attempt to close down the Straits as they promised to do, the Emirates unlike Qatar and Kuwait, would still be able to sell their oil to the world market (as well as reaping the benefits of the astronomical price, were Iran to close the Straits).
Whilst Qatar has mooted on several occasions an idea of building a pipe for its gas through Saudi Arabia and onto Turkey, there are significant hurdles involved. Saudi Arabia has their 745 miles-long East-West pipeline but this does not have the same capacity or cost base as their shipping.
Originally planned to open in 2009 it is now expected to open in August 2011.
It is also interesting to note that it is a Chinese Company that has been contracted to build the pipeline. I wonder what exactly the terms were for that deal i.e. whether China insisted on ‘first dibs’ on the oil that comes out the other end, were the worst to happen.
Hat tip: MEED Issue No 22 28 May – 3 June 2010
Reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? 28, February 2008
Posted by thegulfblog.com in American ME Relations, Saudi Arabia, Soft Power.Tags: America, conservative, driving, Fouad al-Farhan, King Abdullah, reform, religious police, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, saudi rape victim, Soft Power, the Kingdom, witch, women's rights
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For those studying the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and attempting to discern its future directions, there are two broad schools of thought into which opinions fall. One says that the Kingdom is slowly but surely reforming; that the elite, or at least enough of the elite, are of the opinion that reforms are critical to the future of Saudi society. This line of thinking usually endows King Abdullah with relatively liberal values and a desire to open up the Kingdom. The other school suggests that the real heart of the elite is true-blue conservative, with a very large C. Concessions for greater rights and freedoms, where they have been made, were grudgingly employed because of international (or indeed domestic) pressure to do so. Whilst they may make hopeful noises from time to time about liberalisation, really, deep down, the regime just want things to remain the same as they were for their forefathers. The protagonist for this half of the argument is usually referred to as Prince Naif, the head of the Ministry of the Interior.
Therefore, for the student beginning to delve into the seemingly bipolar world of Saudi Arabian politics, there is a choice to make, and what is worse, there is ample evidence for both camps. This can most starkly be seen regarding the role of women in Saudi society and their rights, or lack thereof.
In the months around the turn of 2008, there have been a myriad of confusing, contradictory and, at times, disheartening reports on women’s rights. In November 2007 the Saudi appeal court doubled the sentence of a 19 year old Saudi woman who was gang raped 14 times from three to six months in jail and from 100 to 200 lashes. Her crime was sitting in a car with a man who was not related to her. This, understandably and justly, created international opprobrium and lead – over a month later – to Saudi King Abdullah pardoning the woman for the crime and thus sparing her the punishment.
Despite the barbarism of the initial sentencing and the staggering inhumanity and callousness of the appeal, in the end, some kind of sense prevailed. In January this year there was another small step forward for women’s rights, when it was decreed that women could now stay in hotel rooms by themselves. True, this is only provided that they had photo ID which would be photocopied and sent to the local police, but, again it is one small step in the right direction. More importantly, however, the very next day it was reported that women in Saudi Arabia would be able to drive ‘by the end of the year.’ This would be a massive step. The fact that a woman could drive is more or less incidental; it is the fact that this has become the symbol of the battle over Saudi women’s rights, which makes this so important.
Back in 1990 a group of women drove through the streets of Riyadh hoping to capitalise on the presence of so many foreign reporters in the Kingdom owing to the Gulf War, only to be arrested and have their jobs taken away. The time was, it seems, not right. However, that is all it is: time. All agree that there is nothing whatsoever in the Quran which forbids women to drive. Indeed, two prominent Saudi scholars including one of Saudi’s most senior religious figures, Abdel-Mohsin al-Obaikan, have recently reaffirmed this wide spread belief. However, aside from practical issues (is it safe for women to wear the mandatory Niqab when driving?) problems lie in the fact that many of those against allowing such a practice see this as making it easier for men and women to fraternise. Indeed, they see women driving as the first great step towards a more liberal and permissive society.
In recent years, there have been other smaller but still significant improvements in women’s rights, which could be seen as softening up the ground for the decisive decision over women driving. For example, women may now travel abroad without a male companion (though his permission is still needed), own companies and seek a divorce. Further sign of progress was seen at the end of January when the Saudi Ministry of Social Affairs allowed the creation of a women’s charity – ‘Ansar Al Marrah’ (supporters of women). Its stated goal is to help women improve their social, educational, and cultural levels. The degree to which it will be able to help is, however, entirely dependant on the level of support that it receives from the authorities. Yet, this is, nevertheless, another positive sign.
Unfortunately, we may well get to see just how much power this charity has sooner rather then later. At the start of February a woman was arrested for having a coffee with a work colleague in a Starbucks. After being arrested, she was put in jail, denied the right to call her husband, and forced to thumbprint (sign) a prewritten confession. It was only when her husband found out about this and managed to pull some strings that she was released. There have been suggestions that she might seek legal advice against the religious police that arrested her and the Charity has offered their help.
The arrest was carried out by the Committee to Promote Virtue and Prevent Vice, who used to be a feared organisation in the Kingdom and were highlighted in a recent UN report as “reportedly often act[ing] independently and are accountable only to the governor…[and thus] said to be responsible for serious human rights abuses in harassing, threatening and arresting women who ‘deviate from accepted norms.’” Their powers today are as wide ranging today as they have ever been, but, tellingly, in 2006 there were record numbers of attacks on the religious police by angry citizens in addition to a number of high profile incidents highlighting the seemingly growing trend against the police in more recent years. This could suggest that the Saudi population are turning a corner.
A number of factors appear to cause or support such changing attitudes. The explosion of blogging has been a well documented phenomenon in Saudi Arabia. Whilst the police have been cracking down on this, including the arrest (for officially no reason) of one of the country’s most famous bloggers, Fouad Al Farhan, it is still a massively popular means for Saudi’s to discuss social and political issues. Also, the slow but sure encroachment of Western values via American soft power (i.e. through television, films, music, education in America etc) could finally be having an effect.
However, the religious police are not giving up easily, as shown by the arrest of large numbers of Saudi young men for the outrageous, scandalous, and reprehensible, moral, legal and ethical crime of allegedly “flirting” with a group of girls covered head to toe in a shopping mall in the Kingdom. Not to mention the arrest and sentencing of a lecturer at a Saudi University to flogging for meeting with a female student and the death sentence passed down to an illiterate woman who is accused of being a witch.
Perhaps it is a naïve comment to make, but despite such instances, I am personally convinced that, eventually, Saudi society will reform and treat its citizens equally. The only question is how well the country can manage this transformation. There is worrying scope for destabilisation, which King Abdullah is all too aware of. Indeed, maybe we ought to fall back on the trite, unhelpful, clichéd but thoroughly genuine fact that it took the Western world significantly longer than 150 years to give equality to the sexes. Saudi Arabia is a young country: all we can hope for is that it is a quick learner.
The engine of China’s soft power boom 4, February 2008
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China, Soft Power.Tags: beijing, british council, China, Confucius Institute, culture, foreign policy, Soft Power, taipei, Taiwan
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The Taipei Times ran a story today complaining about the pervasiveness and effectiveness of Beijing’s Confucius Institutes. These are a relatively recent foray for China. These centres appear to be run along similar lines to Britain’s British Council, France’s Alliance Française and Germany’s Goethe Institute. This is to say that they are there to promote their home country where ever they may be. This is done in many ways. Activities can arrange from arranging music concerts, literary events, organising language classes to disseminating educational material about the home country.
The nameless official in the Taiwanese government claims that “they [the institutes] are controlled by the Chinese government and aim to use education and culture to gain international influence and promote the viewpoints of the Beijing government.” This is as good a definition of soft power as you can get. Indeed, as I have argued before, China have been significantly investing in this aspect of power in recent years. These Confucius Institutes are but one successful aspect of this. It is unsurprising that Taipei are not happy about their number and effectiveness – both Taipei and Beijing essentially propagate a one-China policy with each seeing itself as the rightful leader of the country. It is of course possible that China are using such institutions as some kind of ‘front’ for underhand espionage (indeed, they have shown no qualms whatsoever about stealing from other governments in the past) but this does not seem that likely. However, the official is not even inferring this – merely that China are promoting their culture – hardly the greatest of crimes. Indeed, the world will be a much safer place if China continue down this path of expanding their soft power and forgo the hard power route of coercion and threats.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2008/01/31/2003399603
China expanding its soft power 18, January 2008
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China, Soft Power.Tags: China, culture, Soft Power
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China are setting up various cultural extravaganzas in the UK and Malta to coincide with Chinese New Year. The stated goals of the events as a whole are, as ever, to strengthen cultural understanding, forge relationships etc. The events in the UK will be organised by ‘China Now’ a private venture started by, among others, Peter Wong the executive director of HSBC. The Malta festivities will be smaller in scale and appear to be a Chinese government run activity.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/18/content_7444421.htm
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/18/content_7446018.htm
Indian Soft Power 17, January 2008
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Soft Power.Tags: India, Soft Power
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An excellent article on Indian soft power.
China is building up its soft power in Russia 17, January 2008
Posted by thegulfblog.com in China, Soft Power.Tags: China, Russia, Soft Power
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China are setting up a new television channel aimed at promoting China and its culture in Russia, it was announced. This is one aspect of a vast programme that China has been undertaking for years now to expand the attractiveness of China as a brand and to make China an easier, more approachable, more understood place to trade and work. This kind of programme has been especially prevalent in South East Asia in recent years. There are countless examples of exchanges of diplomats being offered as well as scholarships being set up for students and officials from various countries to go and study in China. The idea being that the more familiar foreign officials and foreign nationals are with China the more they will trade with them and come to rely on them as a whole.
“The channel will focus on news about Sino-Russian relations, how to do business in China, programs teaching the Chinese language, series on China’s art, culture, history, places of interest, and also well-chosen Chinese movies, teleplays, and cartoons. There will also be talk shows on hot issues discussing problems emerged during Sino-Russian exchanges.”
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/17/content_7434371.htm
France’s exquisite use of soft power 16, January 2008
Posted by thegulfblog.com in French IR, Soft Power, The Emirates.Tags: Abu Dhabi, France, Soft Power
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Abu Dhabi has another French import to join its already impressive Gallic collection. Not satisfied with enticing both the most famous French University (the Sorbonne) and museum (the Louvre) to the city-state, it has now gone and seduced the ‘Armée Française’ into maintaining a permanent garrison of 400-500 troops in Abu Dhabi itself.
This development is due in no small part to the history of the French in the country. The ties between the French and the Emirates generally and Abu Dhabi specifically go back to at least 1971 with the signing of the original oil concessions. Since then, French companies have been heavily investing in various Abu Dhabi based companies, notably ADCO and ADMA. The French acquisition of a permanent military base in Abu Dhabi is, therefore, but the latest example of France’s exquisite use of soft power. Soft power is the ability to get others to do what you want without the use of any coercive means at all. France have made themselves such attractive international friends to those in the Emirates that they will pay somewhere from $800 million to $1 billion to borrow art work and to borrow a name for twenty years. Not forgetting, of course, asking a foreign non-Muslim power to station troops in the homeland.
What does Abu Dhabi feel that they are getting out of this? Stability? Military protection? Surely the last thing that the region needs is yet another military force conducting exercises in and around the perilously narrow Straits of Hormuz? Presumably, Abu Dhabi sees this as another kind of bulwark against any nefarious Iranian activities. However, let’s not forget how easily the Iranian Revolutionary Guard utterly humiliated the British Royal Navy only last year. Would they have thought twice if it had been a French boat? Of course not. Both countries are ex-colonial (although the French are getting less and less ex-colonial by the day) countries with deep seated beliefs about their place in the world which are not necessarily borne out by empirical evidence. As De Gaulle put it his particularly inimitable way, “France can not be France without greatness.”