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Egypt & Qatar: a quick background 3, December 2010

Posted by thegulfblog.com in Egypt, Qatar.
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One of thegulfblog’s esteemed readers and frequent commentors asked for a quick background on Qatar and Egypt. So voilà. If anyone else wants any brief background pieces, in case I gloss over things too quickly, please just drop me a line: if I know enough, I’ll give it a go! Thanks:

Nasser in the 50s and 60s made Egypt the most important and leading nation in the Arab world. However, it has been downhill since they were wholly mullered by Israel in 1967 (yanni: beaten very badly). Though nominal pride was restored in 1973, Sadat’s visit to the Knesset in 1977 wholly finished off Egypt as a regional power.

Mubarak and indeed ‘all’ Egyptians long for the time of Nasser; when it mattered what Egypt said and did, when it was the leader. While in recent times they – by virtue of their history and their population size – still try to throw their weight around as if they were preeminent, they are not and what is worse is that they know they are not (and they know that others know that they know that they are not – if you see what I mean);)

So, when little – if not microscopic – Qatar comes along in the late 1990s and hosts a TV channel that repeatedly slams Egypt, they are less than amused. At a profound level, Qatar’s power (growing ever since; at its apogee now) really annoys Egypt as they are in many ways more powerful than ‘mighty’ Egypt. (Why did Al Jazeera repeatedly slam Egypt? Cause it was easy, fun and, most importantly, great, salacious TV).

Egypt’s anger has erupted frequently over Al Jazeera. One of the worst breaks happened in Jan/Feb 2009 when Qatar held parallel peace conferences after Israel’s Cast Lead operation. This was seen by Egypt and other ‘traditional powers’ (Saudi) as this little cheeky state once more trying to usurp the natural order: they didn’t get to call conferences!

(Incidentally, Egypt views Al Jazeera as little more than the publicity department of the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs: which is essentially wrong.)

A couple of interesting snippets emerged from the Wikileaks cables. The Emir or HBJ (I can’t remember) said that he believes that Egypt is purposefully not seeking as fast a solution to the Palestinian question as they want to prolong their time ‘in the spotlight’. He also said that he would close Al Jazeera down for a year if Egypt facilitated peace in Palestine!

Gause on the Middle East 20, May 2009

Posted by thegulfblog.com in Middle East.
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Gregory Gause has another excellent article, this time in Foreign Affairs discussing the rule of the Middle East. Here’s the key paragraph:

…the new administration needs to remind itself of the rules of the local game — the traditional contest for influence among regional states. It is played out more in political terms than in military ones, although the possibility of violence is never far. The players are the stronger regional powers (Egypt, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey) and the playing fields are the weaker powers (Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories) whose governments cannot prevent outsiders from interfering in domestic politics. The tools of influence are money, guns, and ideology — and the scorecard is judged by the political orientations of the weaker states.

By this metric, Iran is doing rather well. In Iraq, its influence is greater than that of any other regional power. Iran’s closest Iraqi ally, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, did not do well in recent provincial elections, but Tehran’s ties to the political party of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and to the Sadrist movement, a Shia party built around Muqtada al-Sadr — both of which fared better in provincial elections — remain strong. Meanwhile, Hamas, Iran’s longtime client, emerged from this winter’s war against Israeli forces in Gaza bloodied but unbowed, much as Iran’s ally Hezbollah did from its own war with Israel in 2006. Hamas and Hezbollah now dictate the course of politics in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, respectively — far more so than the central governments controlled by “moderate” Arabs with pro-Western inclinations.

To anyone with a fair knowledge of the Middle East, nothing that Gause says is particularly new. Rarely, however, is swathes of Middle Eastern history, politics, intrigue and modern-day machinations so well summarized.

The Gulf between Arabs and Persians 12, May 2009

Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, Middle East.
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Google this Gulf does not exist

Just for a change, history is repeating itself in the Middle East. In the run-up to the 2006 Asian Olympics in Qatar, a row erupted between the Emir of Qatar, Hamad Al Thani, and President Ahmadinejad of Iran over the name of the water separating the two countries. At a press conference, Al Thani called it the Arabian Gulf to which Ahmadinejad fired back that it is and always has been the Persian Gulf. Cue an international spat with the Iranian delegation threatening to withdraw their participation from the games. Whilst Iran did eventually attend the games, rancour remained.

Today, exactly the same incident is brewing, though this time between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the Islamic Solidarity Games to be held in cities across Iran in October this year. Radio Free Europe reports that Saudi authorities reacted predictably angrily when Iran’s promotional material referred to the body of water as the Persian Gulf. After Saudi’s threat to pull out unless it was changed to the Arabian Gulf or just the Gulf, Iran has “declared the games over.”

In this case, not only is there the depressing irony that the Islamic Solidarity Games are leading to yet more intra-Islamic division, but that, for once, Iran has international law and custom on its side. Not only does the UN officially sanction the term Persian Gulf but it has been in use for quite literally thousands of years, going back to Ancient Greece. The term Arabian Gulf only emerged from the 1960s with the growth of Arab nationalism and the relative decline of Persia/Iran as a power, not to mention that fact that historically the Arabian Gulf was often used to refer to the Red Sea.

One of the ways that Iran has tried to fight its corner is by monopolizing the first place on a Google search for ‘Arabian Gulf’ which will return a page with a mock ‘broken’ webpage titled ‘The Gulf you are looking for does not exist. Please try Persian Gulf.’ Despite this levity, this issue reflects far deeper and entrenched issues to do with the mantle of leadership in the Islamic world. In recent times, Nasser’s pan-Arabism and Egypt’s profound cultural influences claimed this title until the ignominious and catastrophic 1967 defeat to the Israelis. Since then Iran and Saudi Arabia have been the principle contenders. Saudi Arabia used its financial largess post-1967 to bail out Egypt, Syria and Jordan and firmly establish its place at the top. Since then it has used the soft power of Islam’s two holiest places (Mecca and Medina) to establish, augment and propagate itself as a leader of the Islamic community.

However, Iran’s 1979 Revolution endowed it with pious revolutionary zeal, directly challenging Saudi on an Islamic front. Saudi replied to this by further expanding its funding of Wahhabi schools and teaching throughout the Arab world and beyond, most notably on Iran’s doorstep in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Additionally, Saudi funded the Mujahedeen effort do ‘defend Islam’ against the Godless Soviets in Afghanistan after the invasion in 1979. These tactics offset their traditional, conservative reputation to some degree, by placing Saudi at the vanguard of Islam’s defences, whilst also inadvertently sowing the seeds for 9/11. Since this momentous day, Saudi has come under pressure to own-up to its more radical elements and reform its arcane structures and philosophies. Neither of these things is very chic. Therefore, the Iranians, with their anti-Western stance and pursuit of nuclear weapons – the ultimate symbol of a macho-leader country – are clearly currying more favour on the Arab street than Saudi. Add to this the implosion of Iraq, taking away one of Iran’s traditional enemies and bulwarks, and Iran finds itself less constricted and able to exert more influence regionally.

The naming of the water separating these two antagonistic rivals, therefore, is a question of pride, machismo and reputation. Neither can give in. Saudi’s somewhat conciliatory and practical suggestion of just calling it ‘the Gulf’ is as near to a resolution as can hoped to be achieved. Unless Iran acquiesce to this suggestion – which does not appear likely – there is no end in sight for this perennially divisive issue.